The Prediction Markets narrative covers on-chain betting and event-resolution platforms — Polymarket, Augur-style protocols, parimutuel betting on Solana, sports-prediction protocols, and the broader information-market category. Heat here is heavily news-cycle-driven, peaking around elections, major sports events, and macro decisions.
What drives heat
- Major election cycles — US presidential election cycles drive multi-month heat sustainment.
- High-profile sports or pop-culture events — Super Bowl, Olympics, awards shows.
- Macro decision points — Fed meetings, ECB decisions, geopolitical events.
How to read it
Prediction-market heat is unusually leading for what news cycle is about to land — it heats up before the event, peaks at the event, and fades quickly after. The acceleration metric is especially useful here because pre-event heat builds gradually before the spike.
Common misreadings
A high heat reading here doesn’t imply a specific bet is mispriced; it implies the category itself is getting attention. Always look at the specific platform’s odds and depth before drawing market- specific conclusions. Research only — not financial advice.